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Työpoliittinen aikakauskirja 3/2018
English Summaries
years. The Finnish economy turned into growth in 2016. Employment started to grow, as well, but only very modestly. The last quarter of the year 2017 changed the picture in a radical way. Since then, every month has experienced either strong or very strong employment rise in comparison to the respective month one year earlier. Unemployment as well as long-term unemploy- ment turned downwards earlier and stronger than expected. The use of regular fixed-term interviews with the unemployed job-seekers at the Public Employment Service had also a side-effect of updating the job-seeking register effectively. This explains the magnitude and tim- ing of the unemployment decrease effect.
From the point of view of sustainability of the pub- lic finances the employment targets for the com- ing years should be highly ambitious. We could also ask, why remarkably higher employment rate would be impossible to reach for Finland, if it is not impossible in reference countries, like e.g. in
Sweden. It is wholly another matter how rapidly we could reach employment targets of 75, 78 or 80 per cent. Even the level of 75 per cent employment rate during the next electoral period is extremely demanding, and requires success actually in all policy areas. In addition, higher economic growth is required than is forecasted. Structural unem- ployment is probably the most central challenge in reaching high employment rate. Immigration does not help in this mission directly, even if it increases labour supply. Work-based immigra- tion, however, both helps in labour availabil- ity, and rises the employment rate. Remarkably higher employment rate requires success in the functioning of the labour market, educa- tion, social security, regional mobility or social and health care reform. The main challenges in reaching long term economic and employment growth are slacking productivity growth, ageing population, decreasing workforce and structural unemployment.
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